Because of the past period of time the United States has taken on Iran economic sanctions, Iran is now have slashed its oil supply, it makes the international crude oil supply, leading to the oil price has been  cheap nike roshe run shoes rising. Compared with economic sanctions, if the United States along with the international community to take to the assault, it’s likely to force Iran closed hormuz. Thus, the international oil supply and demand will be more big problem, because percent of the world’s oil supply is through the hormuz to delivery.

For the energy market speaking, two factors can lead to the market fluctuate: actual supply shortages and market supply and demand for crude oil is expected to change. If Iran finally successfully developed the nuclear weapons, this will increase the global security hidden danger, it also will increase the possibility of the spread of nuclear weapons. Therefore, even if the market supply of crude oil, oil prices are still not received influence may be due to factors such as terrorism, war rising.

Specifically, once Iran have nuclear weapons, international oil prices may be the following five factors: the first to rise sharply, Saudi Arabia local situation appear unstable trend; Second, Saudi energy facilities have been destroyed; Third, Iran and Saudi Arabia nuclear war between; Fourth, Iran and Israel   cheap nike zoom elite 5 shoes nuclear war between; Fifth, sanctions against Iran all failure.

For the global market for crude oil, the above five kinds of cases, the worst is that Iran with Saudi negotiations between the nuclear war. After we analysis, the two countries risk of nuclear war in a year increased to 5% (the two countries  without nuclear weapons, so now the two countries in the nuclear war risk is zero). If war breaks out, crude oil market will immediately every day 12 million barrels of oil shortage, this is equivalent to 13% of the every day now international crude oil supply.

Based on the above five kinds of assumptions, we also calculated the risk be expected to affect the price of oil. Because the energy market is expected to make adjustments according to supply timely, so even if the five kinds of cases are not happen, from look long, they will still be the possibility to the American cause great economic loss. Here is our main results:

1. In the next year, oil or interval may be 10% to 25% (if in dollar terms, this is equivalent to a barrel of crude oil price rise to $11 to $27). If the Iranian nuclear issue, global instability if continue to increase, the next three years, the  cheap nike free haven 3.0 shoes price of crude oil or interval can be as high as 30% to 50% (average price rise for thirty dollars a barrel to $55).